493
AXPZ20 KNHC 060931
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE KIKO: MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N
139.7W AT 06/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 29 FT NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 137W AND 141W. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS MORNING. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY, WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 107W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N
TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 16N110W TO 14N128W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION FROM KIKO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 16N E OF 96W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODOERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO
13N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA ARE ANALYZED AS A
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE W OF CABO SAN LAZARO NEAR 25N115W. THIS LOW
IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS ARE ONGOING E OF THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN 24N AND 27N.
SEAS ARE MODERATE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF LORENA WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 107W WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING
MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TODAY. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA MON EVENING INTO WED AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
PULSE IN TEHUANTEPEC MON AND TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE,
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA TO OFFSHORE GUATEMALA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO.
HURRICANE KIKO IS NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 48N153W COVERS THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM 30N131W TO 26N137W.
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER N TO NE WINDS
N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 107W IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, KIKO WILL MOVE TO 15.7N 141.0W THIS AFTERNOON,
16.5N 142.9W SUN MORNING, 17.4N 144.9W SUN AFTERNOON, 18.5N
146.9W MON MORNING, 19.6N 149.0W MON AFTERNOON, AND 21.0N 151.2W
TUE MORNING. KIKO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.1N
155.9W EARLY WED.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS KIKO'S STRONG WINDS MOVE
W OF THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF THE
MONSOON AND W OF 110W TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 107W WILL REACH NEAR 120W BY SUN
EVENING, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR THE MONSOON AND
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD.
RAMOS
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