912
AXPZ20 KNHC 072049
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 113W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 107W AND
113W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N111W TO 14N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO. MARINERS NAVIGATING
THESE WATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. FARTHER
NORTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N118W TO 22N117W.
LOCATED NEAR 26N117W, WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THESE WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA AND
TEHUANTEPEC, ARE UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REGIME THAT SUPPORTS
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF BAJA WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MON EVENING INTO
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE
IN TEHUANTEPEC MON AND TUE AND THEN LATE IN THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH S-SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MAINLY SOUTH OF 07N.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE KIKO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE CYCLONE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N TO 22N AND WEST OF
135W. ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT FROM 12N TO 21N AND WEST OF 136W.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS HURRICANE, PLEASE VISIT HURRICANES.GOV.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN.
MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN 115W AND
135W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS TODAY AS KIKO MOVES FURTHER WEST OF THE
AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF THE MONSOON
AND W OF 110W THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 113W WILL CONTINUE MOVING W THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR THE MONSOON AND
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS.
ERA
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