297
AXPZ20 KNHC 080925
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 115W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 112W AND 117W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 15N112W
TO 09N133W AND TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 113W AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 13N AND
BETWEEN 117W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO, FROM
SOUTHERN SINALOA TO JALISCO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF
GUERRERO AND OAXACA. MARINERS NAVIGATING THESE WATERS CAN EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. AT THE SURFACE, A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 30N127W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATE THAT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
REST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING INTO LATE THIS WEEK
AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE EVENING
AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE
IN TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND TUE AND THEN LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED WINDS TO 32 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THESE WATERS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND HIGHER SEAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO SHOWED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HURRICANE KIKO IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WELL WEST OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KIKO, THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 30N127W SUPPORT FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 23N AND WEST OF
130W. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS HURRICANE,
PLEASE VISIT HURRICANES.GOV.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS TODAY AS KIKO MOVES FURTHER WEST OF THE
AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 115W WILL CONTINUE MOVING
W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS
NEAR THE MONSOON AND SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT WEAKENS INTO A
FRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER, NO INCREASE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS EXPECTED
DUE BEHIND THE FRONT.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page