703
AXPZ20 KNHC 081602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86.5W, FROM 10N NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W, FROM 08N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N86W TO 15N120W TO 09N135W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 15N BETWEEN
92W AND 113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH N GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N112.5W, AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK AS AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NE GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING, AND
AGAIN WED THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST
TO SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION
OF THIS WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO,
BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY MODERATE NE GAP WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS, WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH GUATEMALA
EARLY THIS WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING FROM
12N TO 25N WEST OF 130W AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH, A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HURRICANE KIKO CENTERED NEAR 20.3N148.8W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED SURROUNDING A TROPICAL
WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF HURRICANE KIKO IN THE WESTERN WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ALONG 116W WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING
THE WAVE. FARTHER NORTH, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 115W EARLY THIS WEEK.
ADAMS
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