442
AXPZ20 KNHC 082205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND
91W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117.5W, FROM 08N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 15.5N119W TO 09N129W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND
115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE N GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE E TO NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED ALONG 117.5W. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK AS AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NE GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING AND
AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
FAR EASTERN PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST TO SPAWN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN
COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE GAP
WINDS ARE NOTED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA,
ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH GUATEMALA
EARLY THIS WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS, AS OBSERVED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA,
AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 23N WEST OF 130W AS
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 12N133W TO 20N133W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO
29N138W, AND HURRICANE KIKO CENTERED NEAR 21N149.9W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED SURROUNDING A
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 117.5W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO
7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE
OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN WATERS EAST OF HURRICANE KIKO WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. FARTHER EAST, A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 117.5W WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SURROUNDING THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT, LEADING TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W EARLY THIS WEEK.
ADAMS
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