639
AXPZ20 KNHC 090351
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0335 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD
THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO
13N AND BETWEEN 84W AND 91W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W, FROM 08N TO 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W
TO 15N118W AND TO 10N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N128W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
07N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 91W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
IN THE SW UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN MEXICO SUSTAIN
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK AS AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NE GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE MORNING AND AGAIN BY
LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED AROUND 150
MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE PACIFIC FORCES GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE REST OF THE BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH GUATEMALA EARLY
THIS WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED S AND SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO
LATE THIS WEEK. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF 02N THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS,
EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 29N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION,
WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE REST OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
NEAR 39N150W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE PRESENT
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 28N AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH TUE. FARTHER EAST, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG 118W WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING THE
WAVE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND BECOME A
FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NE WATERS BY MIDWEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEK. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W EARLY THIS WEEK.
DELGADO
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