945
AXPZ20 KNHC 090839
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0835 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W, FROM 07N NORTHWARD
THROUGH GUATEMALA AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 87W AND
100W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W, FROM 08N TO 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
15N118W AND TO 10N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N
AND BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND OFF SW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY FROM SINALOA TO COLIMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
N-NW WINDS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA AND TEHUANTEPEC,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEK AS AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF CABO SAN LAZARO LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND AGAIN BY LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED AROUND 150 MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE
THAT WINDS NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE FOUND JUST OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND
EL SALVADOR. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT OFF
COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
FORCES MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH GUATEMALA EARLY
THIS WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS
WEEK. MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF 05N
THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO
28N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOTED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ARE
DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E
WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 28N AND WEST OF 115W. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 119W
WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SURROUNDING THE WAVE. FARTHER NORTH, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND
BECOME A FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NE WATERS BY MIDWEEK. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN WATERS.
DELGADO
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