839
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W, FROM 08N NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 TO
20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 87W AND 102W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE
MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED, AND IS
ANALYZED ALONG 122W FROM 08N TO 18N. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 131W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 15N120W TO 12N127W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N127W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
103W AND 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SINALOA THROUGH MICHOACAN, AND GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS. RECENT ALTIMETER BUOY DATA SHOW 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS
REGION. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY INTO EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONALLY
FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY, AND
AGAIN THU INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN
COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN THE WAKE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 93W. GENTLE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TO THE SOUTH,
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED S AND SW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH WED MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA WATERS
THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 122W. FARTHER
NORTH, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 28N130W TO 28N140W,
AND LOCALLY MODERATE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE
WINDS. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 4 TO 7 FT SEAS IN
THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO SW WINDS PREVAIL. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS
NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 122W WILL
PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST THIS WEEK, LEADING TO MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SURROUNDING THE WAVE. FARTHER NORTH, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 130W LATE THIS WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND.
ADAMS
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