286
AXPZ20 KNHC 100946 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
CORRECTED OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST EP95, IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION GENERALLY FROM
09N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN
COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94.5W NORTH OF 08N TO INLAND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 124W FROM 08N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 13N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND TO 12N96W TO 12N105W TO 12N115W TO 14N123W
TO 10N134W TO 09N140W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ BEYOND 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-115W, WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND
WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM WELL INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR MANZANILLO AND WELL OFFSHORE TO 19.5N107W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW
4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN
LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY INTO EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONALLY
FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU INTO
THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE
MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED ALONG 94.5W. MOSTLY GENTLE SE TO S WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED S AND SW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING WESTWARD OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE NE GAP
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH
AMERICA WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 124W. FARTHER
NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 30N121W TO 28N125W TO
27N131W AND DISSIPATING TO 27N136W. LATEST SCATTERED SATELLITE
DATA PASSES SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS
LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS. RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW 5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS
REGION. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO SW WINDS PREVAIL. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 124W WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SURROUNDING THE WAVE.
FARTHER NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM ABOUT
14N TO 21N WEST OF 130W BEGINNING THU. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS FROM 05N
TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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