568
AXPZ20 KNHC 101005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST EP95, LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE
MEXICAN COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W NORTH OF 09N TO INLAND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 125W FROM 08N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 15N TO 18N. MORE
CONVECTION OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY IS WEST OF THE WAVE. SEE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN PANAMA TO 10N90W TO 13N104W TO 12N113W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 13N127W 1011 MB AND TO 11N133W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-123W
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 128W-130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
90W-92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
SEEM ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE THE STATE OF GUERRERO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
WELL INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO AND
WELL OFFSHORE TO 19.5N107W. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO 28N122W AND TO NEAR 26N130W IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. RECENT ALTIMETER
DATA SHOW 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN
LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVENING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN
COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER
THE OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN THE WAKE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED THAT IS ALONG 96W. MOSTLY GENTLE SE TO S
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH
S TO SW WINDS AS DEPICTED IN THE 0456Z ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS
REACH SOUTH TO NEAR 05N. SOUTH OF 05N, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS. SEAS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE SE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ARE SUGGESTED BY
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH SAT EVENING. MODERATE NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 124W. FARTHER
NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
TO 28N122W AND TO NEAR 26N130W. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DATA PASSES
INDICATED MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS
LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS. OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW 5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS
REGION. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO SW WINDS PREVAIL. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 125W WILL
CROSS 140W LATE ON FRI. FARTHER NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS FROM ABOUT 14N TO 21N WEST OF 130W BEGINNING THU. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY
THIS WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page