314
AXPZ20 KNHC 102250
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95) GALE WARNING:
RECENT SATELLITE SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO
ANGEL, MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96.5W FROM 08N NORTHWARD TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N96.5W, EP95, INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 KT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 129.5W FROM 06N TO A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N129.5W TO 17N. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
13N96.5W, EP95, TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N130W TO 10N134W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N134W TO BEYOND 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N EAST
OF 85W, FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W, FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 100W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON EP95
AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE WARNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM SINALOA TO JALISCO, AND
GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. A DECAYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO
24N130W, AND A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO 21N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
SE WINDS, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
OAXACA, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96.5W AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
EP95. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICO WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FOUND IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AND A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EP95,
WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS SYSTEM.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THU AFTERNOON. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EP95, ALONG 96.5W. SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE
NOTED VIA RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS, WITH SEAS TO 7 FT
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE GUATEMALA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EP95, LOCATED
ALONG 96.5W MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU INTO FRI. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA
THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 129.5W, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED VIA
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THIS WAVE. ELSEWHERE, A DECAYING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BORDER
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 24N130W, AND
RIDGING IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ALL OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FARTHER NORTH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED.
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 5 TO 8 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 129.5W MOVES
WESTWARD THIS WEEK. FARTHER NORTH, THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY LATE WEEK, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL LEAD
TO FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 125W
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ,
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL
WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS
WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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