380
AXPZ20 KNHC 110932 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CORRECTED
GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
EP95, THAT IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING THU
MORNING ALONG WITH SEAS STARTING AT THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT,
BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT ON FRI OFFSHORE THE STATES OF MICHOACAN
AND GUERRERO AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. IN ADDITION,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
ALSO, SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON EP95.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W NORTH OF 07N TO
INLAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 17N. LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB,
EP95, IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
5 TO 10 KT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 129W FROM 07N TO 19N.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD
TO ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND TO LOW PRESSURE, EP95, NEAR
14N97W 1008 MB, THEN TO 13N100W TO 13N120W TO 14N125W TO 12N130W
AND TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180
NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-111W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 111W AND BETWEEN 131W-132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON EP95
AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE WARNING.
THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER COLD FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A WEAK
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N120W TO 23N133W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. A TROUGH
IS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 21N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. SEAS ARE
4 TO 6 FT OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF OAXACA, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, EP95. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING EARLY THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
EP95, THAT IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. IN
ADDITION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION AND A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N
TO NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
THU THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE W TO NW WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVER THESE WATERS PER LATEST ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE
JUST SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE GUATEMALA WATERS TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EP95, LOCATED ALONG 97W MOVES
WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU INTO FRI. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, LEADING
TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER
THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 129W FROM 07N TO 19N.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 19N.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF
120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FARTHER
NORTH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO
SE WINDS ARE NOTED. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 5 TO 8 FT
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 129W MOVES WESTWARD
THROUGH FRI. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH, THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 125W TONIGHT THROUGH
FRI. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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