764
AXPZ20 KNHC 110948
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
STORM WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 97W AND 102W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
EP95, THAT IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN ASCAT PASS
FROM 0348Z LAST NIGHT REVEALED MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AROUND THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SWATH OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS
BEGINNING THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE RANGE OF 8
TO 12 FT. SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TO 12 TO 18 FT ON FRI OFFSHORE
THE STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE
COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. WINDS WITH THESE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE BY LATE FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH HIGHER
SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT. FURTHERMORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
ALSO, SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON EP95.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W NORTH OF 08N TO INLAND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 18N. LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB, EP95, IS
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 130W FROM 07N TO 20N. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF
THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 15N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD
TO ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWEST FROM THERE TO
LOW PRESSURE, EP95, NEAR 14N98W 1009 MB, THEN CONTINUES TO
14N110W TO 12N120W TO 14N125W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N130W
1010 MB AND TO 11N135W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
BEYOND 10N140W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-112W AND
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W AND ALSO
BETWEEN 123-128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON EP95
AND THE ASSOCIATED STORM WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVER THESE
WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W AND THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE, EP95. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
EP95, THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST
STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FURTHERMORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS INTO THIS
WEEKEND, THEN OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO EP95 APPROACHING THOSE WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG PULSING N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE W TO NW WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVER THESE WATERS PER OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE JUST
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 130W FROM 07N TO 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 20N. ELSEWHERE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TO TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO NEAR
25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4 TO 5
FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ,
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE PRESENT. OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL THAT SEAS ARE JUST BELOW
8 FT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, INCLUDING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL
LEAD TO FRESH TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF ABOUT
125W THROUGH FRI. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG, WEST IN
DIRECTION, FROM ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN
THROUGH MON AS THE POSSIBLE CYCLONE THAT MAY FORM FROM EP5
PASSES TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT. LONG- PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING
FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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