091
AXPZ20 KNHC 111603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
STORM WARNING (INVEST EP95): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N99W, WITH LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1009
MB. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO ANALYZED WITH THIS
LOW. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
ALSO, SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON EP95.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 132W FROM 07N TO 20N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N134W. ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM THAT POINT TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON INVEST EP95
AND THE ASSOCIATED STORM WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE OVER THESE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE,
EP95. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICO WATERS. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, AND SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
EP95, THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST
STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BUT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FURTHERMORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND, THEN
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY NEXT WEEK PRIOR
TO EP95 APPROACHING THOSE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG PULSING N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE W TO NW WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 20N.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TO TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
TO NEAR 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL
LEAD TO FRESH TRADES FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF ABOUT 125W THROUGH
FRI. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG, WEST IN DIRECTION, FROM ABOUT 09N TO
14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN THROUGH MON AS THE POSSIBLE CYCLONE
THAT MAY FORM FROM EP95 PASSES TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING
FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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