405
AXPZ20 KNHC 112132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
THE INVEST EP95 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E. T.D. THIRTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 98.8W AT
11/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STRONGEST WINDS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
THIRTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134W FROM 07N TO 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N133W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
NOW UPGRADED T.D. THIRTEEN-E.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE OVER THESE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR T.D. THIRTEEN-E. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WILL MOVE TO
16.1N 100.2W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
16.7N 102.4W FRI AFTERNOON, 17.3N 104.5W SAT MORNING, 17.7N
106.3W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.2N 107.7W SUN MORNING, AND STRENGTHEN TO
A HURRICANE NEAR 18.6N 109.1W SUN AFTERNOON. THIRTEEN-E WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 20.0N 111.5W
BY MON AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND, THEN OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO STRONG PULSING N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE W TO NW WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 20N.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TO TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
TO NEAR 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL
LEAD TO FRESH TRADES FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF ABOUT 125W THROUGH
FRI. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FROM ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
120W SUN THROUGH MON AS T.D. THIRTEEN-E PASSES TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE
WINDS. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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