255
AXPZ20 KNHC 120346
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT
12/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STRONGEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NORTH OF 15N AND BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THIRTEEN-E IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE PARALLEL
TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
THIRTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 08N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 15N96W AND THEN FROM
15N103W TO 13N120W AND TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT FROM 04N TO 15N AND EAST OF 95E. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 107W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON T.D.
THIRTEEN-E OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 33N143W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. MEANWHILE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS NEAR 16.0N
99.6W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THIRTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.5N 101.3W FRI MORNING, MOVE TO 17.1N
103.5W FRI EVENING, 17.6N 105.5W SAT MORNING, 18.0N 107.1W SAT
EVENING, 18.4N 108.6W SUN MORNING, AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 18.9N 109.9W SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, THEN DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. MARINERS IN THE AREA CAN
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 25N AND WEST OF
120W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 105W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL LEAD TO FRESH TRADES FROM 15N TO
22N WEST OF ABOUT 125W THROUGH SAT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FROM
ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN THROUGH MON AS T.D.
THIRTEEN-E PASSES TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page