497
WTPZ43 KNHC 120836
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
300 AM CST FRI SEP 12 2025
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED TONIGHT, WITH ONLY SMALL
AREAS OF CONVECTION BURSTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY SMALL. WHILE BELIEVABLE SCATTEROMETER
WINDS UP TO ABOUT 30 KT WERE NOTED OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACAPULCO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT INDICATED THESE WINDS DID NOT REACH THE COAST
WHEN THE SYSTEM MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH EARLIER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS SLIGHTLY WORSENED SINCE THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (295/10 KT), AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 60 H HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
IN THE NEAR TERM, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
SYSTEM'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND
ECMWF, COMPLETELY LOSE THE CIRCULATION LATER TODAY. BUT IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE AND SURVIVES ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER
WARM WATERS. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE TRENDED MUCH LOWER THIS
CYCLE. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND, BUT
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FUTURE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY, AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES BEFORE THE END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.
2. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY WHILE
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 16.5N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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