700
AXPZ20 KNHC 120923
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT
12/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE AROUND 8 FT
(2.5 M). NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NORTH OF 15N AND BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
THIRTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NORTH OF 05N
AND EAST OF 86W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 136W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 07N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W TO 15N107W TO 13N130W AND TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 90W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON T.D.
THIRTEEN-E OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN MEXICO RESULT
IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
(ASCAT) SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. ASCAT
ALSO SHOWED MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERLY GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PART AND
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
ARE 2-4 FT.
FARTHER SOUTH, A GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS NEAR 16.5N
100.8W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THIRTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17.0N 102.5W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO
17.6N 104.6W SAT MORNING, 18.1N 106.5W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.6N
108.1W SUN MORNING, 19.0N 109.6W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 19.5N 110.9W
MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THEN
DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. MARINERS IN THE AREA CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 5-6 FT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS
WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A BROAD RIDGE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
FROM 12N TO 25N AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8
FT AS SHOWN BY A TIMELY ALTIMETER PASS. LATEST ASCAT DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH WEST OF 97W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
TRADE WATERS WEST OF 125W THROUGH SAT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG FROM ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN THROUGH
MON AS T.D. THIRTEEN-E PASSES TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING
FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page