724
WTPZ43 KNHC 121444
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
900 AM CST FRI SEP 12 2025
37-GHZ AMSR2 DATA FROM 0823 UTC DID AN EXCELLENT JOB SHOWING THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS JUST OVER 30 KT.
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN INCREASING SINCE THAT TIME,
AND THE DEPRESSION HAS POWERED UP TO TROPICAL STORM MARIO WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A T2.5/35
KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM ADT, AIDT, AND
SATCON.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME SIMULATING MARIO'S
FUTURE DUE TO THE STORM'S SMALL SIZE AND PROXIMITY TO MEXICO'S
COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECWMF AND MANY OF
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND
AND DISSIPATING TODAY. ASSUMING MARIO STAYS OFFSHORE, IT IS LIKELY
TO CONTEND WITH MODERATE SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW BEYOND 36 HOURS,
AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN IN THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARIO
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH, BUT GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, THE NHC FORECAST LEANS MUCH CLOSER TO THE IVCN
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. MARIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH COLDER WATERS BY
DAY 5, AND TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SHOWN AT THAT
TIME.
MARIO HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST (295/12 KT),
MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, BUT
AT A SLOWER SPEED, FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE MODELS THAT
MAINTAIN MARIO'S IDENTITY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.
GIVEN MARIO'S VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO, THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A SMALL
SEGMENT OF THE COAST FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MICHOACAN TODAY WHILE MARIO MOVES ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA THROUGH
TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER BERG
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