130
AXPZ20 KNHC 121553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. AT THIS TIME, SEAS
TO 2.5 M ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD MOVE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY. MARIO WILL LEAD
TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES, ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS A RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 89W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 139W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 15N AND W OF 134W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY E
OF 90W AND W OF 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
RECENTLY UPGRADED T.S. MARIO.
THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN MEXICO RESULT
IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE. SCATTEROMETER
ALSO SHOWED MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERLY GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PART AND
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FARTHER SOUTH, A GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.S. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 17.7N 103.7W THIS
EVENING, 18.2N 105.5W SAT MORNING, 18.7N 107.1W SAT EVENING,
19.1N 108.5W SUN MORNING, 19.5N 110.0W SUN EVENING, AND 20.1N
111.4W MON MORNING. MARIO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 21.7N 114.2W BY EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, THEN DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. MARINERS IN THE AREA CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A BROAD RIDGE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
FROM 12N TO 25N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
MODERATE TO ROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ALTIMETER PASS. LATEST ASCAT
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 105W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
TRADE WATERS WEST OF 125W THROUGH SAT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG FROM ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN THROUGH
MON AS T.S. MARIO PASSES TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING
FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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