307
WTPZ33 KNHC 121753
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
1200 PM CST FRI SEP 12 2025
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
MICHOACAN...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 102.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MARIO IS A TINY TROPICAL STORM, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: MARIO WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MICHOACAN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER BUCCI
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