370
WTPZ43 KNHC 122034
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
300 PM CST FRI SEP 12 2025
MARIO CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THAT MARIO IS STILL LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST, WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERIODICALLY FORMING NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. PEAK WIND
VECTORS FROM THE ASCAT PASS WERE ONLY 25 KT, HOWEVER, THE INSTRUMENT
IS LIKELY UNABLE TO RESOLVE MARIO'S PEAK WINDS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT, CLOSEST TO
THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO FORECAST MARIO DUE TO THE
STORM'S TINY CIRCULATION AND PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.
THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODEL, GOOGLE DEEPMIND, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM EITHER MOVING INLAND OR OPENING INTO A
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. OF THE SYSTEMS THAT MAINTAIN
MARIO FOR LONGER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY STRENGTHENING. IF MARIO CAN SURVIVE THIS STAGE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SMALL
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW SHOWS MARIO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
MARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 12 KT,
MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY, BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION, THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS THAT MAINTAIN MARIO'S CIRCULATION ARE
GENERAL WELL CLUSTERED, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST.
GIVEN MARIO'S VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO, THERE IS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL SEGMENT OF THE COAST
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL IMPACT
JALISCO AND NEARBY AREAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MICHOACAN TODAY WHILE MARIO MOVES ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA THROUGH
TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page