225
AXPZ20 KNHC 122132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
N OF 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. MARIO IS A TINY TROPICAL STORM,
AND TROPICAL- STORM- FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 NMI TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PEAKING TO 2.5 M AT THIS TIME IN THE AREA OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO
SHOULD MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NORTH
OF 05N AND EAST OF 86W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY E
OF 85W AND W OF 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON T.S.
MARIO.
THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN MEXICO RESULT
IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE.
SCATTEROMETER ALSO SHOWED MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERLY GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL PART AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FARTHER SOUTH, A GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE TO 17.8N 104.4W
SAT MORNING, 18.5N 106.1W SAT AFTERNOON, 19.0N 107.4W SUN
MORNING, 19.5N 109.0W SUN AFTERNOON, 19.9N 110.3W MON MORNING,
AND 20.3N 111.8W MON AFTERNOON. MARIO WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AS IT MOVES TO 21.3N 114.5W TUE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THEN DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. MARINERS IN THE AREA CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A LONG- PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS
WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A BROAD RIDGE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
FROM 12N TO 25N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
MODERATE TO ROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ALTIMETER PASS. LATEST ASCAT
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 105W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH SAT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG FROM ABOUT 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W SUN THROUGH
MON AS T.S. MARIO PASSES TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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