794
AXPZ20 KNHC 130305
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0255 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 104.6W AT
13/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION PREVAILS NORTH OF 10N AND BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NORTH
OF 05N AND EAST OF 90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W TO 15N107W AND TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 90W TO 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON T.D.
MARIO OFF SW MEXICO.
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 29N148W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO IS NEAR 18.1N 104.6W
AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 18.8N 106.3W SAT
MORNING, 19.2N 108.0W SAT EVENING, 19.7N 109.7W SUN MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
THEN DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUSTAINS MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 4-5 FT. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS
WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATER, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF GALAPAGOS BY MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED WEST OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-8 FT FROM 12N TO 23N AND WEST OF 125W. FARTHER SOUTH,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF
110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH SAT.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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