950
AXPZ20 KNHC 130859
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
09N84W TO 16N111W AND TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 18N AND WEST OF 90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM MARIO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF SW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 17N AND EAST OF 109W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 18N107W, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF MARIO. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT.
AN SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO CAPTURED
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED ARE 5-7 FT. FARTHER
NORTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S-SW WINS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF SW MEXICO THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING
TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLOMBIA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA FROM A FEW HOURS
AGO DEPICTED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
05N. MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS STARTING TODAY, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA WATERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 29N146W CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EASTEN TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT
IN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT
FROM 11N TO 25N AND WEST OF 125W. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH SUN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITH THESE WINDS. LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPANDING
FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page