808
AXPZ20 KNHC 140315
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, FROM 02N NORTHWARD
THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 95W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 16N113W TO
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 21N AND BETWEEN 95W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF MARIO AND AN ADJACENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND WATERS OFF SW MEXICO.
MARINERS NAVIGATING THESE WATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
INCLUDING THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA AND TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
MARIO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WHICH
INCLUDES THE REMNANTS OF MARIO, IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, MAINLY NORTH OF COSTA RICA.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 25 KT. MARINERS IN THE
AREA CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND HIGHER SEAS.
IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS SOUTH OF
05N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR BY TONIGHT, AND
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE REGION-WIDE INTO TUE, THOUGH ROUGH SEAS
MAY PREVAIL BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR THROUGH
MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD,
OCCASIONAL MODERATE NE GAP WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST WATERS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 23N AND WEST OF
120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL IS SUPPORTING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF
05N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W BY TONIGHT, AND SOUTH OF 15N ON SUN.
ROUGH SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOUTH OF 05N EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ROUGH
SEAS PERSISTING FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120
NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN
105W AND 130W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TRADE WIND
WATERS.
DELGADO
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