870
AXPZ20 KNHC 141607
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
17.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 109W AND 11W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FARTHER NORTH TO 21N. PEAK SEAS
NEAR MARIO ARE AROUND 8 FT. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 19.1N 111.3W THIS
EVENING, 19.9N 113.4W MON MORNING, 20.9N 115.4W MON EVENING,
22.1N 117.4W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.4N
119.5W TUE EVENING, AND 24.0N 121.0W WED MORNING. MARIO WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THU.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92.5W, FROM THE EQUATOR
NORTHWARD THROUGH FAR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO
TROPICAL STORM MARIO CENTERED NEAR 18.5N110.2W TO BEYOND 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 09N EAST
OF 85W, FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 105W AND FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 110W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF AMERICA AND ARE ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, A 1006 MB LOW HAS BEEN
ANALYZED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, AND MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS AND 5
TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AWAY FROM MARIO AND
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N
110.2W AT 14/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MARIO WILL
MOVE TO 19.1N 111.3W THIS EVENING, 19.9N 113.4W MON MORNING,
20.9N 115.4W MON EVENING, 22.1N 117.4W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.4N 119.5W TUE EVENING, AND 24.0N 121.0W WED
MORNING. MARIO WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO MON
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, PULSING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN OR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS, AND RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 8 TO 9
FT AREAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 02N OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR. SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED FARTHER NORTH OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
ONGOING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS NOTED TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY TO
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA AS A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW
SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS
MAY IMPACT AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA MON
THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, THROUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE
OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE
TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS,
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N155W.
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 130W
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT SEAS, AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT ALTIMETER AND
BUOY DATA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT
AREAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE,
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 120W, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THIS REGION. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD, SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N TODAY INTO
MONDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOUTH OF 05N EARLY THIS WORKWEEK,
WITH ROUGH SEAS PERSISTING FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
GENERALLY BETWEEN 105W AND 130W TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE TRADE WIND WATERS.
ADAMS
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