133
WTPZ43 KNHC 142033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
200 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2025
A LARGE, COLD CONVECTIVE BURST FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF MARIO
AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY EXPANDED, AND THE BURST HAS
PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED SEVERAL
34-38 KT VECTORS WITHIN 30 MILES OF MARIO'S CENTER. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.0/30 KT
FROM SAB, WHILE RECENT UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. WINDS AT SOCORRO ISLAND, LOCATED LESS THAN 30 N
MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, ARE UP TO 20 KT GUSTING TO 29 KT,
WITH A 1006 MB PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO
ISLAND HAVE BEEN HELPFUL AT ESTIMATING THE INITIAL POSITION OF
MARIO, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 300/6 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARIO IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THE GFS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND MODELS
ARE ON THE RIGHT, OR NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHEREAS
THE ECMWF AND HCCA LIE ON THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, OR EAST,
OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HCCA AND TVCE MODELS.
MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 24-30 HOURS, WITH LOW SHEAR UNDER 10 KT,
WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY
HOUR 30, THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW 27C AND THEN
BELOW 26C BY HOUR 36. AROUND THE SAME TIME, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL BEGIN INCREASING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PLUMMET. THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR THE COMMENCEMENT OF WEAKENING ON
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST HI-RES
HURRICANE MODELS, DO NOT SHOW MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 H. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 H, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IN
THE 55-60 KT RANGE SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. BY 36 H, THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 48-60 H AND DISSIPATE JUST BEYOND 72 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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