941
AXPZ20 KNHC 142205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. PEAK SEAS ARE
AROUND 8 FT NEAR MARIO. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 19.6N 111.9W MON
MORNING, 20.4N 113.9W MON AFTERNOON, 21.5N 115.9W TUE MORNING,
22.8N 117.9W TUE AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.0N
119.7W WED MORNING, AND 24.9N 121.2W WED AFTERNOON. MARIO WILL
DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED, AND IS ALONG
95.5W, FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 107W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 09N105W,
AND RESUMES FROM 15N116W TO BEYOND 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 10N EAST OF 88W AND FROM 08N
TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE OCCURRING SURROUNDING MARIO FROM OFFSHORE OF JALISCO AND
COLIMA TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N
TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA. A 1008
MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, AND MAINLY
MODERATE NW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL AS OBSERVED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AWAY FROM MARIO AND
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N
110.7W AT 14/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MARIO WILL
MOVE TO 19.6N 111.9W MON MORNING, 20.4N 113.9W MON AFTERNOON,
21.5N 115.9W TUE MORNING, 22.8N 117.9W TUE AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.0N 119.7W WED MORNING, AND 24.9N 121.2W WED
AFTERNOON. MARIO WILL DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO MON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, PULSING FRESH NE GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS, AND RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 8 TO 9
FT AREAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR. SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED FARTHER NORTH OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
ONGOING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NOTED TO THE
NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT TO
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA AS A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW
SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. ROUGH SEAS MAY IMPACT
AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA MON INTO WED.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THROUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS,
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR
28N155W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 130W WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS, AS
OBSERVED VIA RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT AREAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST
OF 110W AS NOTED VIA ALTIMETER DATA. FARTHER WEST, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG W TO SW WINDS OCCURRING FROM 10N NORTHWARD TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENERALLY FROM 110W TO 125W, ARE LEADING TO 8 TO
9 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING AROUND 10N FROM 110W TO
125W WILL MERGE WITH A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MON, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N AND
EAST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS LOOK TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUE THROUGH WED OR EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN 110W AND 125W THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TRADE WIND WATERS.
ADAMS
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