016
WTPZ43 KNHC 150237
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
800 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2025
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MARIO HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS PASSING NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
HAS BEEN TILTING MARIO'S VORTEX AND DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB, 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB, AND OBSERVED WINDS ON
SOCORRO ISLANDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF MARIO
AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DATA FROM SOCORRO ISLAND, WHICH WAS
WITHIN 30 N MI OF THE CENTER, EMPHASIZE MARIO'S SMALL SIZE, WITH
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT AND GUSTS TO 27 KT SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL POSITION PROVED DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE, HOWEVER THE DATA
FROM SOCORRO ISLAND HAVE HELPED TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH MATCHES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 295/8 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARIO
IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HRS, THEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
CONSENSUS AIDS.
MARIO IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LOW SHEAR. THE
EARLIER BOUT OF EASTERLY SHEAR MAY ALREADY BE SUBSIDING, AS A NEW
CONVECTIVE BURST BEGINS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, MARIO WILL CROSS THE 26C
ISOTHERM, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE, AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH. THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE
MARIO TO WEAKEN, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 60 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION BY AROUND 96 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY
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