499
AXPZ20 KNHC 150319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 17N TO 22N AND BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. PEAK SEAS
ARE AROUND 8 FT NEAR MARIO. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MARIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 101W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA
NEAR 11N86W TO 15N113W TO 13N130W AND TO BEYOND 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 11N AND EAST
OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 15N AND BETWEEN
101W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULFS OF
CALIFORNIA AND TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 8
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 19.9N 112.9W MON MORNING,
20.9N 114.9W MON EVENING, 22.1N 116.9W TUE MORNING, 23.5N 118.7W
TUE EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.7N 120.3W WED
MORNING, AND 25.4N 121.4W WED EVENING. MARIO WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO MON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, PULSING
FRESH NE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY THIS
WEEK, WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS, SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 05N AND BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE REST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT TO
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA AS A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW
SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. ROUGH SEAS MAY IMPACT
AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA MON INTO WED.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THROUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO 07N AND BETWEEN 108W AND 125W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
8-10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF 108W. IN THE WESTERN EASTERN PACIFIC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO 22N AND WEST OF 115W. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING AROUND 10N FROM 108W TO
125W WILL MERGE WITH A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MON, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N AND
EAST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS LOOK TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUE THROUGH WED OR EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN 110W AND 125W THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TRADE WIND WATERS.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page