655
AXPZ20 KNHC 150945
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 18N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. PEAK SEAS
ARE AROUND 12 FT (4 M) NEAR MARIO. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH STEADY WEAKENING BEGINNING BY LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. MARIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 05N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA
NEAR 11N86W TO 15N111W TO 13N130W AND TO 12N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO
14N AND EAST OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N
AND BETWEEN 105W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN
AND SW MEXICO. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRESENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 2
AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 113.7W THIS
AFTERNOON, 21.4N 115.6W TUE MORNING, 22.7N 117.4W TUE AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.0N 118.8W WED MORNING, 25.2N
120.0W WED AFTERNOON, AND 26.0N 120.6W THU MORNING. MARIO WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE
THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT TUE AND WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY IN THE
REGIONAL WATERS IS THE LONG-PERIOD, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 06N. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES
INDICATE THAT SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE PEAKING AROUND 9-10 FT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THESE
WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT IN THE REST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY TO
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA AS A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW
SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. ROUGH SEAS MAY IMPACT
AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA TODAY INTO
WED. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THOUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATES
THAT FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
FROM TO THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 8-10 FT DUE IN PART TO A LONG-PERIOD, SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO 22N AND WEST OF 115W. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK,
MAINLY BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELL WILL MERGE TODAY WITH THE AREA DESCRIBED, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH WED OR
EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TRADE WIND WATERS.
DELGADO
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