774
AXPZ20 KNHC 151609
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 112W AND 114W. PEAK SEAS ARE
AROUND 13 FT NEAR MARIO. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS ANTICIPATED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING ON
TUE. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 20.8N 114.6W THIS EVENING, 22.0N 116.3W
TUE MORNING, 23.5N 118.0W TUE EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 24.7N 119.2W WED MORNING, 25.4N 119.9W WED EVENING, AND
26.0N 120.5W THU MORNING. MARIO WILL DISSIPATE EARLY FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W, FROM 01N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN
92W AND 106W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 14N104W, AND
RESUMES FROM 15N116W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 08N EAST OF
87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE GAP
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. A 1007 MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT, AND LOCAL SEAS
TO 4 FT IN THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AWAY FROM MARIO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N
113.2W AT 15/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING ON TUE. MARIO WILL MOVE TO 20.8N
114.6W THIS EVENING, 22.0N 116.3W TUE MORNING, 23.5N 118.0W TUE
EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.7N 119.2W WED MORNING,
25.4N 119.9W WED EVENING, AND 26.0N 120.5W THU MORNING. MARIO
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE, WITH
STRONG WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO PULSE TUE NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA THROUGH COLOMBIA, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS
CONVECTION. A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS INTO THE WATERS
WELL OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT
ALTIMETER DATA. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FARTHER NORTH, WITH
LOCAL 8 FT SEAS NOTED WELL OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING TO THE
NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY,
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO
06.5N THROUGH TONIGHT, AND AS FAR NORTH AS 12N OFFSHORE OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH WED, THOUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY
PERSIST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THU. LOOKING
AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 10N, MAINLY FROM 110W TO 130W, AND ROUGH SEAS
NEAR NOTED NEAR THE STRONG WINDS. A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS TO 15N GENERALLY EAST OF 125W.
IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK,
MAINLY BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELL WILL MERGE TODAY WITH THE AREA DESCRIBED, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 125W. ROUGH SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE THROUGH WED OR
EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TRADE WIND WATERS.
ADAMS
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