775
WTPZ43 KNHC 152034
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM MST MON SEP 15 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH MARIO DURING THE DAY,
WITH A MORE CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND CONSISTENT
CONVECTION. A RECENT 1838Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME INNER-CORE FEATURES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-65 KT, A BIT HIGHER THAN EARLIER, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MARIO IS NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD (305/11 KT), STEERED BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST IS WHAT
HAPPENS WHEN MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
PAST FEW CYCLES AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO A MORE VERTICALLY
INTACT MARIO. WHILE THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH, IT REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS,
CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND SOLUTIONS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR MARIO WITH IT SOON
CROSSING INTO COOLER WATERS WITH HIGHER SHEAR. WHILE THE FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING, IT COULD HANG ON A BIT STRONGER IN THE SHORT-TERM
IF IT IS ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS PRIMITIVE INNER-CORE. MARIO
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY WHEN IT GETS OVER COLD
WATERS WITH MUCH HIGHER SHEAR, CAUSING IT TO LOSE CONVECTION IN
ABOUT 36 H AND TOTALLY DISSIPATE BY 72H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM
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