454
AXPZ20 KNHC 152207
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. PEAK SEAS ARE
NEAR 15 FT, WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
IN THE NE QUADRANT, 45 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT AND 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY,
WITH WEAKENING LIKELY TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. MARIO IS ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY. MARIO WILL MOVE
TO 21.8N 115.9W TUE MORNING, 23.3N 117.6W TUE AFTERNOON, BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 24.4N 118.8W WED MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.4N 119.7W WED AFTERNOON, 26.3N 120.2W THU
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W, FROM 01N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN
92W AND 108W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N83W TO 16N111W, AND
RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 11N EAST OF
87W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE GAP
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA,
AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS NOTED ON RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. A 1009 MB LOW
HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 28N112W, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THE GULF, WITH LOCAL SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT IN THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AWAY FROM MARIO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N
114.4W AT 15/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST TODAY, WITH WEAKENING LIKELY TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. MARIO
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY.
MARIO WILL MOVE TO 21.8N 115.9W TUE MORNING, 23.3N 117.6W TUE
AFTERNOON, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 24.4N 118.8W WED
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.4N 119.7W WED AFTERNOON,
26.3N 120.2W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE, WITH STRONG WINDS THEN
EXPECTED TO PULSE EARLY WED THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM COASTAL
NICARAGUA THROUGH PANAMA, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS CONVECTION. A LONG-
PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR NORTH AS 13N, AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT
ALTIMETER DATA. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FARTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED, THOUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST
OFFSHORE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH S
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N149W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS AND 4 TO 5
FT SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 130W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N GENERALLY EAST OF 125W, AS OBSERVED VIA
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, MAINLY
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 05N WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON TUE, WHILE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 05N TO 15N WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W.
ADAMS
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