930
AXPZ20 KNHC 160248
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 18N
TO 25N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. MARIO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND, AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 100W, FROM 01N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 17N111W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 11N EAST OF 90W, AND FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIO,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN
THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 6-8 FT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3
FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE TO 22.6N 116.4W
TUE MORNING, 24.0N 118.0W TUE EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 25.3N 119.0W WED MORNING, 26.0N 119.4W WED EVENING, 27.2N
119.7W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. ELSEWHERE, A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE
AFTERNOON INTO WED. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT, PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, REACHING
STRONG SPEEDS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W
OF 120W, AND 6-9 FT E OF 120W IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, MAINLY
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 05N WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON TUE, WHILE ROUGH SEAS FROM 05N TO 15N WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 120W.
AL
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