249
AXPZ20 KNHC 160851
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0840 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. MARIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NW
TRACK. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND, AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 103W, FROM 01N TO 17N,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N111W TO 16N115W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N EAST OF 93W, AND FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN
95W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIO,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN
THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 6-8 FT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3
FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE TO 23.2N 117.3W
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.6N 118.6W WED
MORNING, 25.6N 119.5W WED AFTERNOON, 26.3N 120.0W THU MORNING,
26.7N 120.2W THU AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST
PACIFIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH WED. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT, PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, REACHING
STRONG SPEEDS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W
OF 120W, AND 6-9 FT E OF 120W IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, MAINLY
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 05N WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON TUE, WHILE ROUGH SEAS FROM 05N TO 15N WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 120W.
AL
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