773
WTPZ43 KNHC 161450
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE DECREASING, AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 40 KT
THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL LOCATION OF MARIO REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH A
RECENT MICROWAVE PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 09Z INDICATED THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN ANTICIPATED. AS MARIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LOSE VERTICAL STRUCTURE, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOW DOWN AND FEEL LESS OF AN
IMPACT FROM THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
STAYING FARTHER WEST AND THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS GOING NORTHWARD.
GIVEN THIS, THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, GENERALLY REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DECOUPLE, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE ITS ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHOULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER,
THE LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 48-60 H.
WHILE MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA, ITS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH, AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 22.7N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE
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