835
AXPZ20 KNHC 162128
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR
23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 4.0
M OR 13 FT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH MARIO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT DAY. MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. WHILE
MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA, ITS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH, AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (INVEST EP96):
AN AREA OF 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL
MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 12N103W CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DESCRIBED BELOW. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20-25 KT WHILE
SEAS ARE 8-10 FT OR 2.5 TO 3.5 M. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 78W TO THE N OF 05N JUST OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 103.5W, FROM 01N TO 17N NEAR THE SW
COAST OF MEXICO, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE
HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N74.5W TO S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96,
NEAR 12N103W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N128W TO BEYOND
10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 02N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 87.5W, AND FROM 08N TO 18N
BETWEEN 101W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W, FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 93.5W AND 101W, FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W,
FROM 17.5N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 138W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO, AND FOR
ANOTHER AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST
EP96.
A PLUME OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE,
OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO AS WELL AS
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 6-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARIO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
23.9N 118.8W WED MORNING, 25.0N 119.8W WED AFTERNOON, 25.5N
120.3W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING
AFTERWARDS. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, EP96, BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT
LOCALLY FRESH FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT
RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED, EXCEPT MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO, AND FOR
ANOTHER AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST
EP96.
OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO AND EP96, A 1011 MB
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
12N128W WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 4-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W
OF 120W, AND 6-10 FT RANGE E OF 120W IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARIO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
23.9N 118.8W WED MORNING, 25.0N 119.8W WED AFTERNOON, 25.5N
120.3W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG
SW TO W WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE 1011 MB LOW DISSIPATES BY WED
AFTERNOON. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR
THE AXIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN
WILL CONSOLIDATE AROUND EP96, WHICH HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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