059
WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MARIO HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23C AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION, AS MARIO IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO
THE NORTHEAST, OR RIGHT, OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CLOSER TO MOST
OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.
WHILE THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA, ITS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH, AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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