644
AXPZ20 KNHC 170248
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT
17/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12 FT. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH MARIO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK AND DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. WHILE THE
REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF CALIFORNIA, ITS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH,
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
AND THE LATEST MARIO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 80W TO THE N OF 02N TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 103W/104W, FROM 01N TO 17N NEAR THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE
HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR
12.5N103.5W TO 14N114W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N EAST OF 90W,
AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL
FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, AND 6-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WILL BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 24.7N 119.2W WED MORNING, 25.6N 119.8W
WED EVENING, 26.3N 120.2W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED, EXCEPT MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON MARIO, AND FOR ANOTHER AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL
FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W OF 120W,
AND 6-10 FT RANGE E OF 120W IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARIO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
24.7N 119.2W WED MORNING, 25.6N 119.8W WED EVENING, 26.3N 120.2W
THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE AXIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WILL CONSOLIDATE AROUND EP96, WHICH
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AL
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