069
AXPZ20 KNHC 172014
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96): A BROAD 1007 MB AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 15N107W IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DESCRIBED BELOW. RECENT
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DEPICT THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO AND SSW OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 86W TO THE N OF 06N TO ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA, CENTRAL
HONDURAS AND CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 105W/106W, FROM 04N TO 18N NEAR THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO, MOVING SLOWLY W AT AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE
HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, NEAR 15N107W TO
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11.5N132.5W TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 91W, FROM 05N TO 15.5N
BETWEEN 93W AND 101W, AND FROM 09N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 103W AND
116.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT, ARE
FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW
OF MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 25N119W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS STILL SHOWED THE CIRCULATION BUT THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG,
ASSOCIATED WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, WHERE SEAS
ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. AN AREA OF FRESH N TO NE WINDS IS NOTED
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE DUE SOMEWHAT TO THE FLOW AROUND AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MARIO. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7
FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 5-8 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU.
WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE
MONSOON TOUGH, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH FROM 01N TO 06N. SEAS
ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
THU, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA AND GULF OF PANAMA
THU AND LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 25N119W. A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS STILL SHOWED THE CIRCULATION BUT
THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE. OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W OF 120W,
AND 6-9 FT RANGE E OF 120W IN S TO SW SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ENTERING THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W WITH FRESH NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL BEHIND IT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF MARIO WILL DRIFT WNW AND
DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS
NEAR THE AXIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN WILL CONSOLIDATE AROUND EP96, WHICH HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF EP96, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS
VICINITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT LEADING TO FRESHENING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS W OF
THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY STALLS AND BECOMES A REMNANT TROUGH INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AND BE QUITE
TRANQUIL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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