445
AXPZ20 KNHC 180211
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO AND SSW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 87W TO THE N OF 01N, MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 108W, FROM 01N TO 20N, MOVING
SLOWLY W AT AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N108W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 05N AND E OF 100W, AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W
AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, ASSOCIATED
WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE
7-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 5-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU.
WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TOUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
THU, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA AND GULF OF PANAMA
THU AND LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 25N119.5W.
MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. FRESH
NE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, ARE OVER THE NW WATERS. OUTSIDE OF
THOSE CONDITIONS, AND CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT
PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE W OF 120W, AND 6-9 FT RANGE E OF 120W IN S TO SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF MARIO WILL DRIFT WNW AND
DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS
NEAR THE AXIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN WILL CONSOLIDATE AROUND EP96, WHICH HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF EP96, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS
VICINITY. FRESHENING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NW WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AND BE QUITE TRANQUIL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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