214
FOPZ14 KNHC 212035
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
L CARDENAS 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 100W 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
ACAPULCO 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 2(40) X(40)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) 2(54)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 1(38)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
FORECASTER BLAKE
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