725
WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
900 PM CST SUN SEP 21 2025
NARDA HASN'T BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED, AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK VALUES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR AROUND
305/9 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH OF NARDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST CORRECTED AND
SIMPLE CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS, TVCN AND HCCA. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN.
NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
SITUATED OVER A VERY WARM OCEANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY UNTIL SSTS GRADUALLY LOWER LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST HCCA
PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 15.3N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.5N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.9N 116.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 17.7N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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