827
WTPZ44 KNHC 220854
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
300 AM CST MON SEP 22 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NARDA HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 37 TO 43 KT. A BLEND OF THESE
DATA, ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, SUPPORTS RAISING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES, AT 10 KT. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS THEN FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, AND LIES BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND THE PRIOR FORECAST.
NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS, OVER VERY WARM
WATERS, AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING, AND NARDA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TUESDAY. BY AROUND 60 HOURS, EASTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20–25 KT, WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RELAX, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND MOST CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH THE SHIPS AND HCCA AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 15.4N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.2N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 16.6N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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