272
WTPZ44 KNHC 221432
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
900 AM CST MON SEP 22 2025
NARDA IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO
55 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO
45 KT. SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, AWAY FROM MEXICO, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE STORM IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT
THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED,
ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS 3 TO 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND MODEL.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WHILE IT MOVES WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER WARM SSTS.
NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL DECAY.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE,
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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