873
WTPZ44 KNHC 222035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
300 PM CST MON SEP 22 2025
NARDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED,
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF AN INNER CORE FORMING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 50 KT, BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO 55 KT. SOME OF THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THESE BANDS COULD CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION, AWAY FROM MEXICO, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM
IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
ITS NORTH. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
PREDICTED WHEN THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE LONG
RANGE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL THIS YEAR IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN.
NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST AIR MASS WHILE MOVING OVER
WARM SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW
AND COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
COOL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
DECAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND DECAY-SHIPS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 16.2N 103.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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