092
WTPZ44 KNHC 231438
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM MST TUE SEP 23 2025
NARDA HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 68 TO 77 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA
AND THE IMPROVING CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 11 KT STEERED BY A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO KEEP NARDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE
HCCA AID.
NARDA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE IT REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. BY LATE TOMORROW, THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY SHEAR AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY OF NARDA TO
LEVEL OFF LATER IN THE WEEK. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN THIS
WEEKEND WHEN NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OF
THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT FALLS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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