069
WTPZ44 KNHC 232039
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM MST TUE SEP 23 2025
AFTER STEADILY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, NARDA'S
INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. OVERALL, THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SURROUNDING IT. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY HELD STEADY TODAY AND SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 75 KT. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM A
FEW HOURS AGO CONFIRMED THAT NARDA IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH ITS
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO ONLY EXTEND UP TO 80 N MI
FROM THE CENTER.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN LOSING LATITUDE TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 260/11 KT. THIS SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS
CAUSED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO NARDA'S
NORTH-NORTHWEST, AND IT SHOULD KEEP NARDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD PATH
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BASED MOSTLY ON
THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
NARDA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODELS SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THAT COULD
CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NARDA
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO A
STABLE AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT STILL LIES
NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 15.4N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page